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Bitcoin’s chart looks parabolic right now…

But its market cap is still just $2 trillion – about the same size as Meta.

If Bitcoin were to reach Microsoft’s market cap of $3 trillion, it would need to hit $150,000.

Matching Apple’s $4 trillion valuation means $200,000 per coin.

And to rival gold’s $20 trillion cap, Bitcoin would need to climb to $1 million.

Now the real question is: If Bitcoin is ready to catch up to gold?

 

The Money Flood Factor

For Bitcoin to reach $1 million, a massive inflow of capital is required.

Luckily, the dollar supply has grown by about $1 trillion a year since 2010.

In fact, half of all US dollars ever created were printed in just the last 10 years.

This tsunami of money has pushed markets to extremes.

Housing prices have never been higher, the stock market touches historic valuations, and gold trades at all-time highs.

If even a portion of these trillions start flowing into Bitcoin instead of traditional assets, the price implications could be staggering.

The Global Asset Picture

The world’s assets total roughly $900 trillion, making Bitcoin’s $2 trillion slice look tiny.

Traditional options look increasingly problematic though.

The Shiller PE ratio shows stock valuations reached highs seen only once in 150 years.

Housing remains unaffordable for most, especially with elevated mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, growing government deficits worldwide erode confidence in treasury bonds.

This environment leaves investors increasingly choosing between gold and Bitcoin.

Of course, similar conditions existed in November 2021 before Bitcoin’s 80% decline.

So, timing these moves remains crucial.

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Economic Cycles Drive Bitcoin

Few understand Bitcoin’s strong relationship with economic activity.

Bitcoin’s price movements closely track copper, a metal very attuned to economic health that traders call it “Dr. Copper.”

When economies strengthen, people have more money for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Copper’s recent strength tells an interesting story.

Its 15% rise since 2025 is showing signs of a potential economic acceleration.

Any further upside from here would mean copper prices are breaking out to new yearly highs.

Every time that copper has done that, it’s typically coincided with a very strong Bitcoin price.

And believe it or not, we have reason to suspect that this is a plausible scenario today…

Manufacturing Revival

The ISM manufacturing new orders index is a simple survey that tracks new manufacturing orders, so a real-time gauge of economic activity.

After years of weakness, new orders are surging, suggesting a pickup in economic activity.

Similar upturns in 2012-2014, 2016-2018, and 2020-2021, all coincided with strong Bitcoin performance.

In fact, today’s situation mirrors January 2017, when Trump’s policies, like tax cuts, revived economic activity.

Bitcoin, already rising back then, accelerated dramatically during that period of renewed growth expectations.

Technical Picture and Trade Setup

Bitcoin’s late 2024 breakout above a key resistance line has held for months.

If economic strength continues as indicators suggest, this breakout should hold, potentially driving Bitcoin toward those higher market capitalizations we discussed.

However, every trade needs defined risk levels.

A failure to hold above the breakout level could signal a false move, opening the door to downside.

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