Gov spending is what is preventing recession. It keeps the wheels on the economic cart causing higher inflation but no recession. This “recession” is the most anticipated recession in history. The Fed is monetizing the debt so all the interest payments are given back to treasury at end of year minus expenses. So as long as Fed buys up treasuries its a form of yield curve control and controls Gov interest payments. Treasury can print to infinity and beyond. Thats my humble layman understanding. It makes the soft landing thesis viable.
So at the moment you still see a rising fed rates short term which is causing TLT to drop?
Thank you for the TLT update. TLT at 90 looks like a great level for a snap back move.
Gov spending is what is preventing recession. It keeps the wheels on the economic cart causing higher inflation but no recession. This “recession” is the most anticipated recession in history. The Fed is monetizing the debt so all the interest payments are given back to treasury at end of year minus expenses. So as long as Fed buys up treasuries its a form of yield curve control and controls Gov interest payments. Treasury can print to infinity and beyond. Thats my humble layman understanding. It makes the soft landing thesis viable.
Any interest in shorting JPY with usd or another currency?