Hi Peter – is not the rise in money markets the result of funds flowing out of banks? Perhaps we are just seeing people investing cash that otherwise was idle at banks. And this short term rise in valuations will fade. Nothing to do with the fact stocks are over priced with poor fundamentals. Rather a perfect storm of short term demand from dumb money MM inflows being invested and hedge fund shorts getting squeezed?
One can look at history and see how the short squeeze in silver sent it to $100 in the 1970s. Short squeezes can be extremely powerful and may send the market to unheard of levels before it finally crashes. The price action is telling this story. Every drop is preceded by a recovery – especially into the end of the trading day. This is likely short covering. I think it is not contrarian to believe the market is too high. I think everyone agrees and the contrarian view now is SPX could hit 4300 or more before this is over. Thoughts?
Very good video Peter. I watched a WSJ video and the reported didn’t seem to understand what is happening with bond prices. If you figure out that stocks are over valued before a potentially large recession and your bank is in trouble wouldn’t you buy 3 month to 2 year bonds with excess cash? People question why bond rates are fluctuating so much. I think it is because of this bank scare is forcing people to wake up and put money in money market or bonds that should appreciate after the FED pivots in six months to a year.
The logic to which you put long-term data from official publications as well as the data bank of SentimenTrader is eye-opening. I made little money with bivariate SentimenTrader data. But your multivariate analyses on the basis of empirically proven theoretical assumptions will, hopefully, change that. To give an example. Right now SentimenTrader has published a sensational chart suggesting with a bivariate graph between the SPX and his seemingly best-confirmed “Panic Euphoria Model” over many decades, that a very rare all-in chance of buying stocks may have arrived. Yet, re-analysing SentimentTrader by the method one learns from you, i. e. disaggregating the deceptive long-term impression, I found that when in 2008 his “Panic Euphoria Model” reached a first tempting all-in signal, the Index fell another 30 percent before reaching the same signal level again a bit later. So, I look forward to being further educated by your truly theory-driven multivariate empirical charts und your disaggregations of SebtimentTrader data.
Hi Peter – is not the rise in money markets the result of funds flowing out of banks? Perhaps we are just seeing people investing cash that otherwise was idle at banks. And this short term rise in valuations will fade. Nothing to do with the fact stocks are over priced with poor fundamentals. Rather a perfect storm of short term demand from dumb money MM inflows being invested and hedge fund shorts getting squeezed?
One can look at history and see how the short squeeze in silver sent it to $100 in the 1970s. Short squeezes can be extremely powerful and may send the market to unheard of levels before it finally crashes. The price action is telling this story. Every drop is preceded by a recovery – especially into the end of the trading day. This is likely short covering. I think it is not contrarian to believe the market is too high. I think everyone agrees and the contrarian view now is SPX could hit 4300 or more before this is over. Thoughts?
US Commercial Bank Deposits Rose Last Week; Small Banks By The Most In 4 Months https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1646976654160408577?s=61&t=oG604IfeqOmQpZnmawVU2w
In the title you mentioned bank outflows causing volatility but you didn’t mention the VIX. Is there a price target on the VIX?
Very good video Peter. I watched a WSJ video and the reported didn’t seem to understand what is happening with bond prices. If you figure out that stocks are over valued before a potentially large recession and your bank is in trouble wouldn’t you buy 3 month to 2 year bonds with excess cash? People question why bond rates are fluctuating so much. I think it is because of this bank scare is forcing people to wake up and put money in money market or bonds that should appreciate after the FED pivots in six months to a year.
The logic to which you put long-term data from official publications as well as the data bank of SentimenTrader is eye-opening. I made little money with bivariate SentimenTrader data. But your multivariate analyses on the basis of empirically proven theoretical assumptions will, hopefully, change that. To give an example. Right now SentimenTrader has published a sensational chart suggesting with a bivariate graph between the SPX and his seemingly best-confirmed “Panic Euphoria Model” over many decades, that a very rare all-in chance of buying stocks may have arrived. Yet, re-analysing SentimentTrader by the method one learns from you, i. e. disaggregating the deceptive long-term impression, I found that when in 2008 his “Panic Euphoria Model” reached a first tempting all-in signal, the Index fell another 30 percent before reaching the same signal level again a bit later. So, I look forward to being further educated by your truly theory-driven multivariate empirical charts und your disaggregations of SebtimentTrader data.